Montreal, November 10, 2025 – Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East (CJPME) today released a new report, The Toll of Intent: Looking at the Genocidal impact of Israel’s assault on Gaza, which synthesizes existing data to project that between 14% and 20% of Gaza's pre-October 7, 2023, population (approximately 341,000–480,800 Palestinians) could ultimately be killed as a result of Israel's operations and the subsequent catastrophic conditions by 2030 without urgent intervention from Canada and its allies. The report uses existing medical estimates and modelling to define various projections of Palestinian deaths for the different possible outcomes of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. The report concludes that the case that Israel has committed genocide is strong and supported by a growing body of scholarly and grey literature from the UN and NGOs.
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“Carney, like Trudeau before him, has tried to avoid naming what we all can see. Not only has Israel committed genocide in Gaza, but its policies have led to a staggering death toll that is on track to sit alongside some of the worst genocides in the annals of modern history,” said Alex Paterson, report author and Senior Director with CJPME. “Canada is legally obliged to act to prevent genocide, and cannot wait for the International Court of Justice to make a definitive ruling. This is just another delay tactic in a long line of foot-dragging that we have witnessed from Canada, which seems to be either waiting for Israel to finish the job or someone else in the international community to step up and stop Israel’s genocide.”
Report’s Key Findings
The report emphasizes that the vast majority of deaths are, and will be, "indirect deaths," resulting from Israel’s systematic destruction of the civilian infrastructure that supports the social determinants of health across Gaza; particularly, the assault on housing and food security alongside the decimation of the health care system.
- Direct Deaths: As of October 19, 2025, direct violent deaths in Gaza are estimated to be between 64,600 and 96,100, with the official count from the Gaza Ministry of Health (GMoH) of 68,500 understood to be the reasonable floor by most observers.
- Civilian Toll: Of those 68,500 deaths, the most restrained estimates suggest that at least 56,600 Palestinian civilians (83%) have been directly killed by Israel in Gaza. This number climbs based on higher projections.
- Current Death Toll: Depending on the projection used, the current loss of life should be estimated between 120,000-595,800. We can say with extremely high confidence that at least 298,000 total deaths are not only plausible but the most likely total tally based on the literature.
- Long-Term Catastrophe: The report warns that approximately 38% of total deaths are projected to likely occur within a five-year timespan after fighting stops, as the annihilation of social and health infrastructure in Gaza will take decades to repair.
- Indirect Deaths: Applying well established scholarly literature on conflict death ratios (4:1 indirect deaths to direct deaths) to the range of Gaza death count estimates projects over 272,800-384,400 eventual indirect deaths. These would contribute to 14-20% (341,000-480,500) of the pre-October 7th 2023, Palestinian population of Gaza being killed by 2030.
- Genocidal Intent: The systematic annihilation of Gaza’s essential infrastructure—including the destruction of 94% of hospitals, over 80% of water/sanitation facilities, and 62% of housing stock —is highlighted as evidence that Israel's strategy is to deliberately create the conditions for mass indirect death and make Gaza unlivable.