Executive Summary

Beginning to understand the human cost of Israel’s current occupation of Gaza is necessary for proposing policy towards Israel and Palestine. The situation on the ground in Palestine should guide our strategy for supporting Palestinians in rebuilding their lives and communities. It also helps us hold Israel accountable for the impact of its crimes in Gaza.

This report compiles the growing evidence of the scale of horror experienced by Palestinians in Gaza, along with the human lives lost due to Israel’s crimes. It synthesizes existing literature on the death toll in Gaza, within the context of the emerging consensus that Israel’s attacks on Gaza constitute genocide.^[i] To do this, we conducted a review of grey literature produced by the United Nations, thinktanks, and prominent non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Throughout, we update previous calculations to the current date and conflict context. We also provided a range of potential indirect death totals based on the different death ratio scenarios outlined in the literature on violent civil conflict.

Key findings

• As of Oct 19, 2025, direct deaths in Gaza are estimated between 64,600-96,100 based on differing analysis of the Gaza Ministry of Health’s (GMoH) official count of 68,500. The case is extremely strong for the GMoH number to be understood as the floor.
• With certainty we can project that Israel’s attacks will kill at least 193,800 or 8% of the 2.4 million Palestinians in Gaza before October 7, 2023; with over 120,100 or 5% already having been killed based on conservative estimates.
• Projections that posit that Israel’s actions will kill roughly 480,800 or 20% of the pre-October 7^th, 2023 population of Gaza are highly plausible and should be utilized in policymaking and planning.
• Higher ratio scenarios suggest the possibility of over 682,000 – 961,600, or 28-40%, of Palestinians in Gaza eventually being killed as a result of Israel’s operations. These scenarios should be planned for.
• The most extreme “worst-case” scenario of Israel’s attacks projects an eventual loss of life equal to roughly 67% of Gaza’s pre-Oct 7^th, 2023 population. Confidence is much lower for projections like these and they should be approached with the utmost caution and forbearance.
• In all projections, the vast majority of deaths have occurred because of Israel’s attacks on the social determinants of health in Gaza. These so-called “indirect deaths” will continue for years, with approximately 38% of total deaths occurring within a five-year timespan after fighting stops. Some of these deaths are preventable and should serve the basis for policy and planning.
• The case that Israel has committed genocide is strong and supported by a growing body of grey and scholarly literature from the UN and NGOs. The case is especially strong within the historical context of Israel’s settler colonial pursuit of annexation of all of historic Palestine, with the full intention of removing the vast majority of Palestinians from that land through ethnic cleansing or genocide.

Summary of Recommendations

Given its legal obligations, we recommend that the Government of Canada:

1. Officially recognize that Israel has perpetrated genocide in Gaza.
2. Support South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the ICJ.
3. Accept Palestinians evacuating from Gaza into Canada through all migration streams.
4. Publicly defend the multilateral institutions from attacks by Israel and the US.
5. Conduct independent war crimes investigations in conduct of Canadians in Gaza.
6. Stop the remaining flow of Canadian-made weapons to Israel.
7. Impose escalating economic sanctions on Israel until it ends the illegal occupation of the State of Palestine.
8. Provide leadership in rebuilding Gaza’s public health and population health systems.

Given Canada’s legal obligations, we recommend that all Parliamentarians:

1. Recognize Israel’s actions in Gaza as a genocide by passing motions in Parliament.
2. Publicly declare that Israel has committed genocide and call for immediate escalating sanctions.
3. Vote in favour of Bill C-233, the No More Loopholes Act.