Was Israel’s attack pre-emptive or illegal?

Israel and the U.S. have characterized the June 13 attacks on Iran as a pre-emptive act of self-defence, and therefore not a violation of international law.^[2] Canada and the G7 echoed this framing, stating that Israel has “a right to defend itself.”^[3]

However, legal experts widely dispute this justification. Given the lack of evidence of an imminent attack by Iran, experts argue that Israel’s use of force violated Article 2(4) of the Charter of the United Nations and therefore was unlawful and amounts to the crime of aggression.^[4] In an admission that its goals are not limited to self-defence, Israel has openly stated that it is seeking regime change.^[5]

Israel’s targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities — which, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), resulted in damage or destruction of centrifuges^[6] — also violates international law. In a statement, the IAEA Director General said that Israel’s attacks are “deeply concerning” and that “nuclear facilities must never be attacked.” He cited IAEA resolutions GC(XXIX)/RES/444^[7] and GC(XXXIV)/RES/533,^[8] which affirm that any armed attack on nuclear facilities devoted to peaceful purposes is a violation of the principles of the UN Charter, international law and the Statute of the Agency.

The International Commission of Jurists, an international human rights organization, said that Israel’s attack on Iran, and its nuclear facilities, was a grave violation of the UN Charter and international law.^[9]

Is there evidence that Iran is building a nuclear weapon?

No, there is no evidence that Iran is actively building a nuclear weapon. Neither the UN nor the IAEA have accused Iran of attempting to build a nuclear weapon. Nor has Israel provided any evidence to support its claim that Iran is close to acquiring a nuclear bomb.

How long would it take Iran to develop a nuclear weapon?

U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran is years away from developing a nuclear weapon — if it even intends to pursue one under the most aggressive timeline.^[10] In March 2025, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified before Congress that the Intelligence Community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.”^[11] An October 2024 New York Times investigation, based on interviews with numerous atomic energy specialists, found that it would likely take several months to a year.^[12]

Why did the IAEA censure Iran?

On June 12, 2025, 19 of the 35 member states of the IAEA voted in favor of a resolution — put forward by the U.S., Britain, France, and Germany — to censure Iran.^[13] The resolution was based on the IAEA Director General’s report from May 2025, which described Iran’s cooperation with certain aspects of IAEA oversight as “less than satisfactory.”^[14] However, the same report also noted that “the Agency has no credible indications of an ongoing, undeclared structured nuclear programme” and that “Iran continues to cooperate with the Agency on matters of routine safeguards implementation.”^[15]

Despite the report making clear there is no evidence Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, Israel still pointed to this vote of censure by the IAEA as justification for the necessity of its attack.

The IAEA’s censure was the first action of its kind taken by the Agency against Iran in its almost 20 years of abiding by non-proliferation agreements. In response to the censure, Iran said it would activate an additional nuclear enrichment facility.^[16] Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is for civilian purposes.

What is the history of Netanyahu claiming Iran is dangerously close to gaining the bomb?

Netanyahu claimed Iran was “three to five years away” from attaining a nuclear weapon over three decades ago, as far back as 1992.^[17] Since then, he has repeatedly claimed, without strong evidence, that Iran is close to having a nuclear bomb.

Here are a handful of examples of Netanyahu’s public statements warning that Iran is producing nuclear weapons:

• 1995: “Iran will be capable of producing… nuclear bombs within 3-5 years” (CBS News)
• 1996: In reference to the Iranian nuclear programme, “Time is running out” (Address to U.S. Congress)
• 2006: “Iran is gearing up to have… 25 atomic bombs a year, 250 bombs in a decade” (CNN)
• 2012: “[Iran is] very close. They’re 6 months away from being about 90% of having the enriched uranium for an atom bomb” (IBTimes News)
• 2015: “[Iran is] weeks away from having the fissile material for an entire arsenal of nuclear bombs” (at the UNGA)
• 2018: “[Iran has] the preserved knowledge to make a bomb very quickly” (CNN)
• June 2025: “If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time” (public address)^[18]

Will Israel’s attack address nuclear proliferation?

No, and some experts argue that Israel’s attacks on Iran could paradoxically fuel both the Iranian government and public to seek a nuclear deterrent.^[19]

Israel itself is believed to have more than 90 nuclear weapons, and the capacity to produce many more, according to the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation.^[20] However, Israel does not acknowledge the existence of a nuclear arsenal. Israel is also not a party to the NPT (unlike Iran), and therefore does not allow international inspections and is not subject to any safeguards (unlike Iran).^[21]

[1] New York Times, “Israeli Strikes Kill Civilians Across Iran,” June 18, 2025.

[2] Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “Israel attacks Iran, targeting military leaders, nuclear facilities, and nuclear scientists,” June 12, 2025.

[3] “G7 Leaders’ statement on recent developments between Israel and Iran,” June 16, 2025.

[4] Marko Milanovic, “Is Israel’s Use of Force Against Iran Justified by Self-Defence?,” EJIL:Talk! (Blog of the European Journal of International Law), June 13, 2025.

[5] The Guardian, “Netanyahu speaks of regime change in Iran; what he means is regime destruction,” June 17, 2025.

[6] BBC, “Centrifuges at Iran's Natanz site likely destroyed, nuclear watchdog says,” June 16, 2025.

[7] International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), GC(XXIX)/RES/444, “Protection of nuclear installations devoted to peaceful purposes against armed attacks,” 1985.

[8] IAEA, GC(XXIV)/RES/533, “Prohibition of all armed attacks against nuclear installations devoted to peaceful purposes whether under construction or in operation,” 1990.

[9] International Commission of Jurists, “Israel/Iran: Israel’s attack on Iran violates international law, threatening peace and security,” June 13, 2025.

[10] CNN, “Israel says Iran was racing toward a nuclear weapon. US intel says it was years away,” June 17, 2025.

[11] US Office of the Director of National Intelligence, “DNI Gabbard Opening Statement for the SSCI As Prepared on the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community,” March 25, 2025.

[12] New York Times, “To build a nuclear bomb, Iran would need much more than weeks,” October 2, 2024.

[13] IAEA, “NPT Safeguards Agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” resolution adopted on June 12, 2025 during the 1769th session.

[14] IAEA, Report by the Director General, “NPT Safeguards Agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” May 31, 2025.

[15] Ibid.

[16] Associated Press, “Iran announces a new nuclear enrichment site after UN watchdog censure,” June 12, 2025.

[17] The Intercept, “Benjamin Netanyahu’s Long History of Crying Wolf About Iran’s Nuclear Weapons,” March 2, 2015.

[18] Al Jazeera, “The history of Netanyahu’s rhetoric on Iran’s nuclear ambitions,” June 18, 2025.

[19] The Guardian, “Israeli strikes have not knocked out Iran’s nuclear programme - or its nuclear ambitions,” June 18, 2025.

[20] Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, “Israel’s Nuclear Inventory,” June 2025.

[21] The New York Times, “As Israel Targets Iran’s Nuclear Program, It Has a Secret One of Its Own,” June 17, 2025.